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Nevada Track Stat's State Championship Preview

2003 State Cross Country Preview

The NIAA State Cross Country Championship will be held this Saturday at Rancho San Rafael Park in Reno. The meet schedule is as follows:

2A Boys @ 10:00 a.m.
3A Boys @ 10:40 a.m.
4A Boys @ 11:20 a.m.
Boys Awards Ceremony @ 11:55 a.m.

2A Girls @ 12:30 p.m.
3A Girls @ 1:10 p.m.
4A Girls @ 1:50 p.m.
Girls Awards Ceremony @ 2:25 p.m.

The long range weather forecast calls for it to be a bit on the chilly side, 40’s, with a chance of rain showers. Details on the weather can be found at HERE.  Our meet preview will include comments and predictions for our Nevada Track Stats staff: John Dixon, Phil Lawton and Penny Sparks. Dixon "nailed" the Southern Region with his predictions last week so I guess we’ll have a go at the State Meet as well. Let’s start with the 1A/2A.

1A/2A Boys – Nine schools were represented in the Northern Region and only 5 in the Southern Region. The North was won by Independence with Whittell coming in second, 5 points back. The South was won by Faith Lutheran HS with a total of 17 points. Laughlin was the runner-up with 53. The South will also be represented by Trinity HS and the North will be represented by Sage Ridge. We see Faith Lutheran repeating their 2002 championship. (Note: This could be Faith's last 2A title. The Crusaders are moving up to 3A next year). The Crusaders scored 46 points in winning the ’02 meet. Whittell was the runner-up in 2002 but we don’t see that happening this year. Look for Independence to get 2nd and Laughlin and Whittell will battle it out for 3rd. Individually look for Faith’s Brian Nestor to repeat his 2002 championship. His main competition will come from his own teammates Trent Holthaus and Brian Joerger. Northern champ Jonathan Shoop from Incline should be the North’s main contender.

Our Predictions:

Dixon: 1. Faith Lutheran 2. Independence 3. Whittell

Lawton: 1. Faith Lutheran 2. Independence 3. Whittell

Sparks: 1. Faith Lutheran 2. Independence 3. Whittell

 

1A/2A Girls – Five Northern teams competed in the Region Meet and just 2 complete teams from the South. Team entrants are, from the North, champion Incline, runner-up Whittell and 3rd place Sage Ridge. From the South, champion Faith Lutheran, runner-up Laughlin and 3rd place Indian Springs. Indian Springs did not have a complete team at Region but still qualified because of the 1A/2A "ghost runner" rule.  Incline looks tough going 1-2-3-4 at Region. They placed 3rd at the 2002 meet but look like the team to beat this year. They are led by 2002 State Champ Addie Devine. Devine won the North Region last week by 1:13. Diana Sitar from The Meadows School, the Southern champ, was 3rd in the 2002 race and looks to be Devine’s main competition. Another girl to watch will be Faith’s Cassandra Murzl, the ’02 State Runner-up. After those 3, we don’t see many threats for the title.

Our Predictions:

Dixon – 1. Incline 2. Faith Lutheran 3. Whittell

Lawton 1. Faith Lutheran 2. Incline 3. Whittell

Sparks 1. Incline 2. Faith Lutheran 3. Whittell

 

3A Boys – Three teams from the North (Lowry, North Tahoe, Truckee) and 2 from the South (Boulder City and Virgin Valley) qualified for the State Meet. There were 8 complete teams up North and just 3 from the South. Truckee is the defending champ but not a favorite this year. The Northern Region champ Lowry looks tough, scoring 54 points in an 8 team meet. The Southern champ, Boulder City scored 24 points and placed 3 in the top 4. Lowry is led by 2003 Regional champ, junior, Lupe Cabada. Cabada was 3rd at the ’02 state Meet. Boulder City is led by senior Cory Elder, 2003 S. Regional champ. Elder was a disappointing 18 at the ’02 State Meet. He has been running very well this year with the goal of avenging his 2002 State performance. Another junior with a great shot at the individual championship is Bishop Manogue’s Sam Bedell. Bedell was just .2 behind Cabada last week. Team wise we like Lowry in a close one with North Tahoe.. Boulder City has the front runner with Elder and a good #2 with Chase Jones. Their #3 man, Bobby Smale, will not be running in the meet.  Lowry has their front man with Cabada and if they can place Cory Hawkins and Jake Steinman before North Tahoe's #2, it’s over. Bedell, a potential race winner, will not figure in the team scoring.

Our Predictions:

Dixon – 1. Lowry 2. North Tahoe 3. Boulder City

Lawton 1. Lowry 2. North Tahoe 3. Truckee

Sparks 1. Lowry 2. Boulder City 3. North Tahoe

3A Girls – Defending champ Lowry went 1-2-3 at State last year and even though chances of that happening again are slim, the Buckeroos looks like a lock to repeat. Kelsey Engstrom, who did not run the meet in ’02 due to an injury, looked very good in winning the Northern region by 15 seconds over Bishop Manogue’s Maria Melton. Engstrom has a great supporting cast in sister Katie (3rd in ’02 State), Whitney Mentaberry (’02 State runner-up), Felicia George and Anna Schumacher. The Southern champ was Boulder City. The Eagles have been led all year by senior Courtney Saylors. Saylors won the South Region by 36 seconds over teammate Kaylee McCullough. Saylors was also 4th in the ’02 State meet. After #2, the Eagles fall off dramatically. Their #3 is over 3:00 behind Saylors. The rest of the qualifying teams, North Tahoe and Bishop Manogue in the North and Pahrump Valley in the South have little chance for the State crown but North Tahoe can give BC a run for 2nd.

Our predictions:

Dixon – 1. Lowry 2. Boulder City 3. North Tahoe

Lawton 1. Lowry 2. North Tahoe 3. Boulder City

Sparks 1. Lowry 2. Boulder City 3. North Tahoe

 

4A Boys – The three Regions, North, Sunrise and Sunset will send 2 teams each to San Rafael Park. More importance will be placed on front runners with just 6 teams. The requirement for a strong 5th runner won’t play as important of a roll as it did in years past. The Northern reps will be Regional champ Reno and Galena, the Sunset will be represented by champ Centennial and Durango and the Sunrise will be represented by champ Basic and Silverado. Basic is making their 20th straight appearance at the State Championship. On paper, Reno looks like the odds on favorite. Five in the top 10 at Region, :59 second split between 1 and 5, great "Sweeps" performance at Mt SAC, cold weather and home cookin’. The South doesn’t have a chance, right? Well, some may say that they don’t, but don’t try to convince Basic and Centennial. Basic placed 5 in the top 17 at Region and were led by the 2nd place finish of Josh Sillitoe. Basic sports a 1:45 split between 1 and 5. That will hurt them at State.  Centennial won the Sunset without "starters" Blake Schlotzhauer, Devon Davis and Stephon Davis…and they still went 1-2 and placed 5 in the top 18. The Bulldogs had a 1:19 split but that will improve if they run the "A" team. Centennial had over a 1:00 better "team time" than Basic at Region. Will Galena be a factor? Absolutely. Galena will have to improve their team split considerably to overtake Reno and Centennial. Individually, defending State champ Patrick Swick from Chaparral seemed completely recovered from an injury that forced his DNF at Mt SAC. Pat’s 16:43 was the fastest time of the meet down south. Chap did not qualify as a team, so throw his score out. Stephen Pottey from Galena was a 9 second winner in the North Region over Kevin Sandall from Elko. Don’t count out Jon Cardenas from Reno as a contender as well. Even though the "Centennial 3" didn’t run at Region, the "team" qualified, so Coach Richardson will be able to run anyone on his squad, so Schlotzhauer is also a favorite.

Our Predictions:

Dixon – 1. Reno 2. Centennial 3. Galena

Lawton 1. Centennial 2. Reno 3. Galena

Sparks 1. Reno 2. Galena 3. Centennial

 

4A Girls – Six teams will be on the line Saturday for the 4A final. The South will be represented by Sunset champion Centennial, who won a tie breaker with runner-up Palo Verde as well as Green Valley, who won the Sunrise championship on a tie breaker with Foothill. The North will have defending State champ Reno and regional runner-up Galena. If there is ever a "lock" for a State Championship it’s Reno. Reno placed their scoring 5 in the top 8 last weekend and will be led by the dynamic 1-2 punch of Collier Lawrence and her freshman sister Marie. These 2 dazzled the crown at Mt SAC by running in the 17:30’s and helping Reno place 2nd in the Team Sweeps. They were also 1 second apart at the Northern Regionals (19:06-19:07). Reno will also have Nicole Lajeunesse (4th 20:40), Daryan Glenn (6th 21:07) and sister Michelle Glenn (8th 21:22) in their top 5. This team looks unbeatable! The hope for the South looks like Green Valley and Foothill. These were the top 2 teams out of the South based on combined results. But put them in a State Championship race with fewer teams and there’s no telling what the order will be. We see second place up for grabs among the 5 remaining teams. Galena is  a strong contender to take home a plaque. They will be led by Alyssa Abbott (5th in Regionals) and Shanel Bolsta (9th). The South individuals with a shot at top 5 include Regional Champions Amanda Gramly from Clark and Kelly Fernandez of Silverado. Both of these girls ran extremely tough races last weekend and are true competitors. Others in the hunt are Elko’s Britney Almaguer (3rd in the North), Megan Karl from Foothill (2nd in Sunrise), Christa Avena (2nd in Sunset and 2nd fastest time of the meet…also a State Champion in 2001) and Centennial’s Meghan Mathews. South Tahoe will have a contender in Kimmy Arrounes as will Palo Verde’s Melissa Voss and Durango’s Tasha Larson.

Our Predictions:

Dixon – 1. Reno 2. Galena 3. Foothill

Lawton 1. Reno 2. Galena 3. Foothill

Sparks 1. Reno 2. Galena 3. Green Valley

 

We all know that a meet is not run on paper. But it may be run on snow!  Nevada Track Stats will be at the meet taking photos and gathering stories. We wish all the teams and individuals the best of luck. As we say, "the hay is in the barn". Good running to all!

Copyright 2003 NevadaTrackStats.com

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